A blog on US politics, Math, and Physics… with occasional bits of gaming

How Unemployment is Calculated

Given the Administration’s current polling on economic and other issues,
The number of people unemployed is _higher_ than the number of jobless claims, with the difference being accounted for by the "labor force participation rate," i.e. the number of people either working or actively seeking a job.

This is down slightly, to 61.9% currently, from 62.6% in January 2025 - meaning that around 0.7% of American adults have stopped looking for work of the past 14 months. They don't have jobs (or at least, they don't have jobs with employers who are reporting required statistics to the government - gray-market employment, full-time parent, and caring for ailing parents would not normally be reported), and they consider their prospects sufficiently poor that they're not even filing for unemployment benefits. (For context, the labor force participation rate is now at the lowest level it has been - barring the COVID-19 pandemic - since February 1977.)

There are several sources of data about employment levels, but one of the most common figures is based on jobless claims, i.e. people filing for unemployment benefits. This requires you to prove you tried to get a job, and to also prove that you lost your job through no fault of your own.

Also, the unemployment rate (the documented-by-employment-records percentage of people who want jobs who are unable to find them) is now at 4.3%, up from 4.0% in January 2025.

Putting both numbers together, the fraction of legal US residents who have jobs is down from 0.626 * 0.960 = 0.601 (60.1%) in January 2025 to 0.592 (59.2%) today.

A Brief Note on the US Separation of Powers, and Unitary Executive Theory