A blog on US politics, Math, and Physics… with occasional bits of gaming

On the seemingly-eternal Middle East mess

I wish that more criticism of Israel was framed as criticism of Netanyahu's policies, of overreach, of going beyond what's necessary and reasonable to defend the state. I see lots of all-or-nothing, black-and-white arguments with no room for nuance, ambiguity, or areas of gray morality. I see lots of arguments for collective punishment that don't acknowledge the existence of innocent bystanders or civilians disagreeing with their leaders. The Hamas fighters who assaulted Israeli civilians on October 7 are complicit. The Israel settlers who assaulted trucks trying to bring food and water into Gaza are complicit. The Israeli military leaders who ordered bombing of hospitals and neighborhoods and used famine as a weapon of war are complicit. Iranian leaders firing missiles or sending drones into residential neighborhoods are complicit. American hawks pushing for war against Iran in defense of Israel and to "end the nuclear program" that didn't exist when they started the war, or to "open the Strait of Hormuz" which was open before the war - are complicit. American leaders lumping the majority of Israeli civilians in with the few who are actively pursuing war crimes are complicit.

But every single group frames their action as justifiable self-defense, as killing their enemies before those enemies have a chance to kill them. Every single leader among them is more focused on drumming up fear and retributive sentiment in support of their own political power than they are on actually helping their constituents thrive. None of them have shown any interest in calming the situation and building win-win scenarios: trade agreements, compromises, diplomatic & cultural dialogue.

As a result, the conflict is spiraling. Every side in it gets wrapped up in xenophobia and vows of retribution. Every side sees the others as an existential threat. Every side imagines the worst their opponents have ever done, or threatened to do, or been rumored to do - and vows to do even worse to those opponents in turn. Every side has lost civilians. Every side has valid grievances. Every side ends up threatening genocide and destruction of the others. The fears become self-fulfilling. The conflict becomes self-perpetuating. Each side's confidence in their own moral superiority and tenacity means the war spreads and claims more innocent lives. The deaths of those innocents spurs more survivors to vow retribution.

None of the leaders trust each other. None of the leaders want to work with each other. None of the leaders seem to care that their policies will lead to deaths of their own citizens, constituents and soldiers.

The only way out of this mess is for political leadership to push back against their allies' violent, vengeful urges. That's not easy.

Israel's historical treatment of Palestinians and Arabs who live within its borders has been poor. Its leadership has actively supported settlers traveling beyond the borders it established by treaty and violently evicting the Palestinians living there. That historical context matters. Iran's funding of terrorism against Israel is context that matters. Egypt blocking refugees from Gaza is context that matters. Saudia Arabia's proxy war with Iran, and its use of Israel's attacks against the Palestinians to rally domestic support - is context that matters. America's installation of an unpopular puppet government in Iran is context that matters. Israel blowing up phones of Hamas leaders even when they were being carried by children is context that matters.

To get out of the spiraling conflict, all sides need leaders who acknowledge the sins of the past, who understand the mistakes that have been made, who take time to learn the context and conflicts of the region, and who work to make sure that _only_ the guilty are punished, and who publicize the detailed evidence for that guilt and the reasons for that punishment. There will not be peace until the various sides decide that protecting their opponents' innocent civilians is more important than blind vengeance.

Mike Johnson's warning that Democrats will investigate Trump and his allies